AGP Executive Report

Poland–Ukraine Security: Poland’s special forces took part in a US-led, drone-focused drill simulating operations through enemy lines, drawing lessons from Ukraine’s war experience as NATO tensions with Russia rise. EU Sanctions & Frozen Assets: The EU is preparing a sanctions expansion targeting about 1,600 Russian individuals and entities, while the frozen Russian-assets debate remains stuck—Belgium again rejected using roughly €200bn to support Ukraine, citing legal and retaliation risks. Poland in Defense Industry: Ukraine will showcase new developments at MSPO-2026 in Kielce, with 29 Ukrainian manufacturers attending and Poland’s MoD and PGZ backing the event. Poland–Business & Markets: Wrocław is pitching itself as a smarter business travel hub, banking on tech talent and growing corporate demand. Poland–Tech/Health Research: Polish cardiologists presented VISION-FFR results comparing vFFR software with optical imaging in chronic coronary syndromes. Poland–Corporate Finance: A Poland-focused push by Redefine Properties highlights a shift toward allocating more capital to Poland. Poland–Historical Remembrance: 55 Polish victims from the Volhynia tragedy were reburied in Ostrówki, Volyn, after summer exhumations.

Poland–Ukraine Diplomacy: Former Polish PM Jan Krzysztof Bielecki says Warsaw and Kyiv should “clear” painful historical disputes first (including Volyn exhumations and dignified burials), then move on with cooperation guided by “forgive, but remember.” Energy & Markets: Europe heads into winter with gas storage at the lowest levels in 13 years, raising the risk of price volatility as replenishment lags and geopolitical shocks keep supply routes tight. EU Policy Fight: Belgium blocks renewed EU talks on using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine, warning of legal and financial risks despite pressure from Poland and other states. Defense Industry: Poland and the US are in advanced talks to relocate Patriot production, according to Warsaw. Business/Investing: Revolut rolls out its euro stablecoin EURR across select EU markets, adding to the stablecoin race amid tighter regulation. Polish Economy Angle: A new analysis argues Poland’s coal transition is faster than its reputation—coal’s share fell sharply while renewables rose—though gas is also filling part of the gap. Cybercrime Case: Polish authorities arrest a man accused of a pizza-delivery prank that escalated into stalking and identity fraud, with threats and major losses to companies.

Poland–US Defence Industry Talks: Warsaw is in advanced talks with the US to relocate part of Patriot air-defence production to Poland, with discussions now focused directly on industry and a decision possible within weeks, as Europe faces growing interceptor shortages. Energy Security: EU gas storage is at its lowest level in 13 years, with facilities around 63% full and analysts warning winter could start roughly 20% below recent averages—raising the risk of sharper price swings. Crypto & Payments: Revolut has launched its euro-pegged stablecoin EURR in Denmark, Poland and Portugal, starting with a limited rollout and a small initial market cap, as it expands stablecoin access under MiCA rules. Poland’s Corporate/Policy Signals: Poland’s unemployment is reported steady at 5.8%, while the government’s draft 2027 budget keeps a deficit target around 7.1% of GDP. Security Coordination in the Baltic: Baltic Sea states are pushing tighter EU security planning as hybrid threats linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine intensify, including incidents involving drones and damaged undersea cables.

EU Energy Security: EU gas stores are at their lowest level in 13 years, with stocks only 63% full and “winter panic” rising as injection rates lag and colder spells could spike prices. Ukraine Financing: Four EU countries (including Poland) want Brussels to reopen talks on using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine, arguing the 90bn euro loan won’t be enough for short- and long-term needs. Poland’s Crypto Crackdown: Prime Minister Donald Tusk says Poland may re-vote on the Crypto-Asset Market Act after the Zondacrypto collapse and related corruption probe, pushing for tighter rules to curb fraud. Sports Governance: UEFA escalates its fight with FIFA boss Gianni Infantino, filing US court papers alleging “criminal mismanagement” tied to a World Cup stake-selling plan. Polish Justice & Crime: Police dismantled a mephedrone lab in Dębica County, seizing 28kg of finished drug and arresting three suspects (Belarusian and Ukrainian). Cyber Fraud: A Szczecin prankster faces up to eight years after allegedly placing hundreds of fake delivery orders, including a 300-pizza request, using victims’ identities.

Poland Budget Watch: The Polish government has approved a draft 2027 budget projecting a deficit of 7.1% of GDP (unchanged vs 2026), with total spending at 977.6bn złoty and defence, healthcare and the energy transition staying among priorities. EU-Russia Assets: Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland are pushing the European Commission to restart work on using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, but the Commission says it hasn’t received the latest letter yet. Baltic Security: Baltic Sea states are stepping up coordination after warnings of escalating hybrid warfare, including drone and cyber threats; Germany is backing a new Baltic security taskforce and stronger drone defences. Poland-Ukraine Defence Tech: The UK and Ukraine signed an AI defence partnership giving UK researchers access to Ukraine’s Avengers AI Labs battlefield data, aiming to speed up development of new security capabilities. Crypto & Sports Governance: Polish Olympic Committee chief Radosław Piesiewicz has been arrested in a crypto-linked graft probe, adding pressure to Poland’s sports governance amid fraud allegations. Local Justice: Polish police arrested a 23-year-old suspected of ordering hundreds of bogus food deliveries (including 300 pizzas) using other people’s names, with charges that could bring up to eight years in prison.

Meta crackdown: Poland has asked the European Commission to fine Meta €250m over alleged failures to remove fraudulent ads on Facebook and Instagram, citing CERT Polska tests that found 122 scam posts, with Meta removing only 10 and leaving 6 without a response. Sports & governance: The Polish Olympic Committee president, Radosław Piesiewicz, was detained in the Zondacrypto probe, with prosecutors looking at whether he received benefits linked to the exchange’s chief. Energy storage: Greenvolt secured €218m financing from UniCredit for two Polish BESS projects (Ełk and Turośń Kościelna), backing 400MW/1.6GWh of four-hour storage. Construction & pipeline: Austrian contractor Porr reported slightly lower H1 revenue but said its order pipeline remains “full,” including work tied to Poland’s Szczecin bypass and a semiconductor factory contract in Germany. EU policy pressure: Ukraine’s foreign minister backed a push by Poland and other EU states to put the use of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine on the agenda at the next EU foreign ministers meeting. Business & fraud risk: The Zondacrypto case continues to widen, while Poland’s Meta action signals tougher scrutiny of online scams ahead of election-year politics.

EU Budget Talks: “Frugal” EU states led by Germany demand the Commission cut its nearly €2tn 2028-34 budget by “several hundred billion euros,” arguing security, defence, competitiveness and migration must fit tighter national finances. Meta Crackdown: Poland asks the European Commission to fine Meta $291m (€250m) over fraudulent ads on Facebook and Instagram, citing CERT Polska tests where most scam listings stayed up. Russian Assets for Ukraine: Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland push Brussels to reopen options to use frozen Russian sovereign assets beyond the already agreed 90bn euro loan. China Low-Value Parcel Rules: EU imports of small parcels from China fell 30-40% after the July 1 levy on consignments up to €150, hitting Temu and AliExpress hardest. Poland-Ukraine Tensions: The Polish Church calls for an end to incitement and hate incidents targeting Ukrainians, citing rising police reports in 2026. Football Governance: UEFA prepares Swiss criminal complaints against FIFA boss Gianni Infantino over the World Cup privatisation plan, while also suspending a potential European boycott on a provisional basis.

Stablecoin Shake-Up: Revolut has started rolling out EURR, a euro-pegged stablecoin issued under EU MiCA via Stripe-owned Bridge, to customers in Denmark, Poland and Portugal, while Tether’s USDT has been delisted from MiCA-licensed exchanges across the EEA since July 1—turning the “stablecoin war” into a fight over what’s legally allowed. EU Budget & Ukraine Funding: EU states including Poland are urging Brussels to restart plans to use immobilised Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine, with a Financial Times report citing a coalition letter to the Commission. Carbon Market Scrutiny: Questions are growing over how EU ETS money is spent; Poland is highlighted for earning over €112m from a CO₂ allowance auction while energy and industry costs rise. Polish Defense Industry Export: Lockheed Martin’s Polish unit PZL Mielec delivered the final 7 S-70i Black Hawks to the Philippine air force, completing a $624m deal and expanding Poland-made deliveries abroad. Energy/Industry Deal: Hyundai Engineering met Poland’s state assets minister to discuss bringing a PDH/PP petrochemical plant in Police into operation and boosting localization/technology transfer. Border Row Disinfo: Czech outlet Seznam Zprávy reports an AI-driven disinformation campaign aimed at stirring a Polish-Czech Cieszyn Silesia conflict, with Polish security services suspecting possible Russian involvement. Vodka Retail Expansion: Paragon Brands secured new Booker listings for Żubrówka Biała and Goslings Black Seal Rum, expanding availability for independent retailers in Poland.

Poland Defense & Industry: Boeing won a $131.23B ceiling contract for long-term F-15 production, modernization and sustainment, with Poland named among seven Foreign Military Sales customers. EU Security Cooperation: Sikorsky picked Czech ČLS as its first EU-authorised Black Hawk parts distribution centre to speed spares for the 150+ helicopters in service across Europe. Ukraine War Risk: Ukraine’s SSU and police say they stopped an FSB plot to assassinate a defence-industry executive in the Kyiv region using an explosive device under a car seat. EU Football Governance: UEFA is “likely” to drop its FIFA tournament boycott after getting assurances the controversial private-investor plan won’t be repeated, with the U20 Women’s World Cup in Poland due to proceed. Fintech & Crypto: Revolut began rolling out EURR, a euro-backed stablecoin issued via Stripe-owned Bridge, to select users in Denmark, Poland and Portugal under EU MiCA rules. Poland Business Spotlight: Seeking Greatness, a Polish personal development and education firm, says it generated over PLN 30M in cumulative sales over four years. Energy & Power: Enea plans a €71M investment in the Polaniec power plant. Markets & Macro: Poland’s unemployment held steady at 5.8%.

Polish Markets & Finance: LCH SwapClear cleared its first swaps referencing POLSTR, the new risk-free rate for PLN swaps, a step meant to support the WIBOR-to-POLSTR transition and boost liquidity in OTC derivatives. Tech & Gaming: CD Projekt RED will release “The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – Remastered” on Sept. 29 as a free upgrade for existing owners, while also confirming a 2027 expansion, “Songs of the Past,” at Gamescom. Aviation & Connectivity: Air Arabia greenlit a Sharjah–Gdansk non-stop route from Dec. 14, 2026 (five weekly flights), adding to its Polish network and strengthening UAE–Poland travel links. Energy Storage: Alpiq is buying the Bollingstedt battery storage system in Germany (103.5MW/238MWh), adding an operating large-scale BESS to its flexibility portfolio. Business Expansion: Bidcorp reported steady results despite tough conditions, with revenue up 5% and trading profit up 8.2%, helped by Europe/UK performance and post-year-end moves including a Poland acquisition. Poland in the Wider Economy: EU officials are set to travel to China as Brussels pushes trade talks, complicated by Beijing blocking cooperation with an EU investigation tied to JD.com’s proposed takeover of Ceconomy.

Poland Economy: Poland’s unemployment rate held steady at 5.8% in July, with 906,400 people out of work (up from 901,500 in June), while youth unemployment under 24 edged up to 116,700. Digital & Consumer Protection: InPost founder Rafał Brzoska is again at the center of a Meta dispute after fake Facebook ads using his image promoted scams; Poland’s data regulator (UODO) previously ordered Meta to stop such ads. Defense & Industry: Poland signed a framework deal for Piorun MANPADS with Lithuania, Latvia and Norway under the EU SAFE scheme, worth €1.86bn, with deliveries to run to 2030 and training/logistics included. EU Energy Policy: Six EU countries, including Poland, are pushing for a common windfall tax framework on oil firms, targeting refining and fuel distribution margins. Security & Tech: OpenAI shut down Russia-linked ChatGPT accounts tied to a covert influence campaign spreading pro-Moscow narratives. Mobility & Trade: Air Arabia plans new flights to Poland, adding Gdansk and Katowice routes to its network.

Defence Procurement: Poland’s Mesko has signed an 8bn zloty (€1.9bn) deal to supply Piorun man-portable air-defence systems to Poland and three NATO partners (Norway, Lithuania, Latvia), with EU SAFE financing; deliveries include “several hundred” launchers and “several thousand” missiles, and the first batch is already tied to Poland’s armed forces. Armoured Forces: Poland has received its first 28 K2 tanks under a $6.5bn Hyundai Rotem contract, with future shipments including the K2PL variant partly assembled in Poland using domestic components. Refugee & Growth Data: Poland’s Foreign Ministry says Ukrainians boosted Poland’s 2024 GDP growth by 2.7%, with a 78% employment rate and 966,000 Ukrainians officially employed; it also claims Ukrainians launched 100,000+ businesses. Ukraine Support at Risk: A Krakow-based women’s shelter and helpline for Ukrainian refugees, Martynka, says funding is drying up while anti-Ukrainian hostility rises, threatening long-term support. Crypto Fallout: Polish crypto exchange Zondacrypto’s senior executive has reportedly resurfaced in Israel as fraud probes deepen after the firm’s collapse. Tourism & Services: Dubrovnik is nearing 900,000 tourists in 2026, while Poland-linked business expansion continues with new openings and IPO activity in the region.

Polish Defence Industry: MESKO and Poland’s MND Armaments Agency signed a PLN 8bn (over $2.16bn) framework deal with the EDIRPA consortium to supply thousands of Piorun MANPADS and launch systems for Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Norway, with deliveries running to 2030. EU Energy Policy: Six EU countries including Poland are pushing the Irish presidency to revisit a crisis-era levy and discuss an EU-wide windfall tax on oil companies’ exceptional profits amid renewed fuel-price pressure. Retail & Real Estate: Henley completed the sale of the Galeria Pestka shopping centre in Poznań to OPAL CENTRES, reporting occupancy above 95% and footfall growth to 5.1m visits annually. Poland’s Legal/Administration: A regulation now lets all Polish registry offices recognise same-sex marriages performed in other EU countries, following an EU court ruling; local authorities have been warned they must comply. Tech & Industry: Wrocław-based Gekko Photonics says it is bringing real-time photonic (Raman) monitoring to industrial production to cut delays and quality drift. Business & Consumer: Poland retail sales growth eased to 3.9%, signalling a slower consumer pace.

Market Spotlight (Poland): S&P Dow Jones upgraded Poland to developed-market status, effective with the September 2027 index reconstitution—potentially widening the pool of funds tracking Polish equities. Energy & Industry: Van Oord finished all 111 monopile foundations for the 1.5GW Baltica 2 offshore wind project in Poland, clearing the way for the next turbine and electrical phases toward late-2027 commissioning. EU Policy: Six EU countries, including Poland, pushed for an EU-wide windfall tax on oil companies to fund consumer relief amid surging war-linked profits. Finance & Commodities: Gold hit a more-than-three-month high as investors looked ahead to US inflation data and Fed messaging; Poland’s central bank also kept adding to reserves. Tech & Business: Olivka launched an AI calorie tracker inside WhatsApp, Messenger, Telegram and Instagram—no separate app. Crypto Risk: Zondacrypto vanished after executives disappeared and customer funds were frozen, reviving concerns about platform trust. Trade/Logistics: South Korea is testing Arctic container routes to Europe, with calls including Gdańsk—an emerging alternative as Middle East shipping faces disruption.

Arctic Trade Test: South Korea’s PanStar Acro has launched a first commercial Arctic route trial from Busan to Europe, calling at Felixstowe, Rotterdam and Gdansk, while Western officials warn it could require Russia-linked transit permissions and complicate sanctions. Energy & Gas Politics: Putin admitted Russia’s fuel-market problems from Ukrainian strikes aren’t fully resolved and reiterated his view on Nord Stream 2, saying the original plan would have run through Poland but shifted to the Baltic Sea. EU Tax Push: Spain and five other EU states (including Poland) are urging the EU to debate an EU-wide windfall tax on oil companies’ extraordinary profits tied to the Iran war, ahead of an Ecofin meeting in Dublin on Sept. 18-19. Poland Storm Disruptions: Severe storms hit Poland and the Baltics, knocking out power for hundreds of thousands, with injuries and deaths reported and rail delays expected. Local Business & Mobility: Hitachi Rail won a contract to modernise fare collection for Jakarta’s MRT, upgrading gates to support contactless cards and QR tickets. Culture in Warsaw: A free Silent Film Festival runs Sept. 1-17 in Warsaw, with live music from Belarusian and Polish composers.

Poland’s Credit Outlook: Fitch kept Poland’s sovereign rating at A- but warned the outlook stays negative as the budget deficit widened to 141.1bn zlotys by end-July and fiscal consolidation remains weak. EU Energy Politics: Finance ministers from Poland and five other EU states renewed pressure for an EU-wide windfall tax on oil firms, arguing soaring prices tied to the Iran conflict are hitting households and businesses. Central Banking & Gold: The Bank of Korea is back buying gold, using an ETF route to diversify reserves amid geopolitical risk—another sign central banks are rethinking safe-haven exposure. Cyber & Critical Infrastructure: Iran-linked hackers allegedly shut down a UK power plant for four days, prompting fresh guidance to energy firms—an issue that resonates for Poland’s own infrastructure security. Gaza Diplomacy: Poland’s foreign minister said the Gaza “humanitarian catastrophe” and lack of accountability are eroding support even among pro-Israel countries, after Warsaw summoned Israel’s ambassador. Trade Routes: South Korea launched its first commercial Arctic container voyage to Europe, with a stop in Gdańsk, aiming to cut distance and time as Middle East disruptions reshape shipping. Crypto Case in Poland: Prosecutors merged the missing-person probe into BitBay founder Sylwester Suszek with a financial investigation, keeping the case unresolved four years after his disappearance.